Best Coffee: Making Money on Line

In the lower portion of this chart, there is a modified sine wave pattern to help visualize the behavior of the cycle in the SP500's price movements. The market was following this cycle pattern very nicely up until late 2005, and then it jumped onto a new schedule that just happened to be about a half cycle length off of the original schedule.

So with the knowledge that a phase shift was a possibility with this cycle, it was hard to understand what was happening in early 2008. And this illustrates one of the big pitfalls with doing any sort of cycle analysis: cycles can change, and so while they may give us nice predictions of what should happen at some point in the future, there is no guarantee that the past behavior will remain in effect in the future.

It just so happens that 2007 was when this cycle changed, and it was also the year that the uptick rule for shorting stocks went away. It is hard to understand why a rule change like this could make a difference on a market cycle, but I have an explanation that may help.

Imagine a wave pool in a laboratory, where scientists create waves to study how they travel through the water. Now imagine that you remove all of the water, and replace it with 30-weight motor oil. Because the oil is lighter but more viscous than the water, the behavior of waves in that wave pool would understandably be different.

So thinking of the financial markets, if the regulators were to do something that changes the "viscosity of money", making it flow more or less easily, then we would likely see changes in the way that waves propagate through that medium as well. Such changes might include restrictions on shorting stocks, the advent of money market funds, the introduction of stock index futures and options, leveraged ETFs, etc. All of these affect the ease with which money can flow into and through the stock market.

Now, if you look back at the top chart, you can see that the blue numbers are getting bigger again lately. Those numbers represent the time period between the major lows of this cycle (formerly known as 9-month). The lowest number was 159 trading days in early 2008, and it has climbed back all the way up to 177 as of the latest major cycle price low. It may be that after the initial shock, this cycle is working on getting back up to is "natural" frequency. Or it may be that 159 and 177 are just the widest extremes of a new range of cycle periods that average more like 168 trading days, and that this is the new natural frequency. We won't know for sure for several more cycles' worth of time, and that's the big problem with this analytical technique.

For what it's worth, and to help your planning, 159 to 177 trading days from the most recent major cycle low equates to a timeframe of Oct. 31 to Nov. 25, 2011.

In 11 days, Alberto Del Rio takes part in his first-ever Money In The Bank pay-per-view. The problem is that there isn't much knowledge as to what exactly he will be at that pay-per-view.

Del Rio was announced as one of the eight Money in the Bank participants for RAW's ladder match. If Del Rio wins that briefcase, he would be given a chance to cash in a title match against the WWE Champion, who is currently John Cena.

Del Rio facing Cena has been a rumored SummerSlam main event for quite some time, so having Del Rio win and cash in quickly could set up this as a main event for SummerSlam with the WWE Championship on the line. This seemed to be a likely scenario for Del Rio, until CM Punk's worked shoot promo occurred.

CM Punk, his promo and his future in WWE is the one thing that has captivated all pro wrestling fans in the last few weeks. His promo has brought more discussion from more unlikely outlets than many other WWE story lines in recent memory.

Last week's RAW was taped the same night as CM Punk's shocking promo, meaning that his suspension and reinstatement was already making its way around wrestling sites days before it actually happened.

With that known, WWE still put on a triple threat number one contender's match on that same RAW to crown a new challenger for John Cena's WWE Championship. Del Rio competed against Rey Mysterio and R-Truth in that match, which was seldom talked about compared to the reinstatement of Punk.

All three men in the match were already a part of RAW's Money in the Bank ladder match. Logic would suggest that the winner would be pulled from the Money in the Bank ladder match in favor of the WWE Championship match, putting a new participant in the mix.

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Best Coffee

Wednesday 3 August 2011

Making Money on Line

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